Swing State Breakdown: How McCain Can Win

Reuters has a breakdown of twelve swing states and the current poll numbers. While it’s obviously an uphill struggle for McCain it’s also a sign that things are not in the landslide territory that the Obama camp and the media in their pocket want you to believe. Here’s a sample of three main states from the list.

* Florida — 27 electoral votes. Bush beat Kerry 52 percent to 47 percent in a state known for the disputed result that decided the 2000 election. Florida is a classic swing state with many older voters who could favor McCain along with Jewish voters who are normally Democratic but have been wary of Obama. The two most recent polls both gave Obama a 4-point lead, while some earlier polls had showed a narrower margin.

* Ohio — 20 electoral votes. Bush beat Kerry by about 120,000 votes in the state that ultimately decided the 2004 race. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio, and McCain will have a hard time piecing together a win without the state. One new Thursday poll gave Obama a 7-point lead, while another had him up by 4.

* Virginia — 13 electoral votes. Bush won fairly easily by 9 points in 2004 in a state that has not gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964. But Virginia’s trend has been toward Democrats in recent state elections amid dramatic growth in the Democratic-leaning northern suburbs of Washington, D.C. Two Thursday polls both gave Obama 4 point leads, narrower than in some earlier surveys.

That’s 60 Electoral votes between those 3 states which are polling with leads of just 4 points. Considering the weighting and manipulation of poll numbers, things could be even closer than revealed.

Source: Reuters

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