Swine Flu Turns Deadly: A Second Wave?

CDC map of U.S. H1N1 cases as of 5/14/09

In the first serious case of swine flu found in New York City, the assistant principal of a Queens middle school has been hospitalized and is on a ventilator in critical condition, officials announced just hours ago. Mayor Michael Bloomberg held a news conference around 6:15 p.m. ET to discuss the new outbreak, and disclosed that the H1N1 virus is in all 5 boroughs of NYC.

The assistant principal, who works at Intermediate School 238, in the Hollis section of Queens, was said to be near death. The authorities would not immediately disclose his name, but he may be this man: Anthony Paladino. His illness has raised the possibility that the virus may have mutated into a more severe form than has been seen yet in New York.

Arizona reported it’s first swine flu death today, bringing the U.S. total to 4, with two in Texas and one in Washington state. The Maricopa County, AZ Health Department disclosed that the woman in her late 40s died last week of what appears to be complications of the new strain of influenza. As of Thursday morning, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had identified 4,298 confirmed and probable cases of swine flu in the United States. 936 were confirmed within the past 24 hours. Many states have stopped testing suspected flu cases, as the numbers of those possibly ill with H1N1 is enormous. The first wave of the virus had been fairly tame. 70 people have died around the world. That may change…and I imagine the testing will be stepped up again quickly.

Follow global-disease-monitoring firm Veratect’s Swine Flu updates on Twitter. They’ve been out in front from the beginning.

Today, the husband of a pregnant woman who was the second Texas fatal case, filed suit against mega-pig-producer Smithfield Foods- whose La Gloria, Mexico pig farm is thought to be the “ground zero” by many.

Rolling Stone did a withering, stomach-turning expose of Smithfield 2 years ago.

Like the 1918 flu, which killed a staggering 50 million, H1N1 seems to target young, healthy people between 18-45. Respiratory failure is seen with both strains; the bird flu part of H1N1 is known to cause a “cytokine storm” which essentially turns your immune system against you. The 1918 flu took about a year to make it’s way around the world in 3 waves, each more deadly than the previous one.

As of today, H1N1 is global, and the general population has no immunity to it. In Spain alone, there are over 22 cases of in-country transmission…well more than the World Health Organization said would be needed to move it’s emergency status to Level 6: Global Pandemic. Obviously it IS that. It remains to be seen whether H1N1 has mutated into a much more dangerous killer… it is definitely not playing by the rules. The next 48 hours will be very important.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that the WHO is investigating a claim by an Australian researcher that H1N1 may have been created as a result of “human error.”

Adrian Gibbs, 75, who collaborated on research that led to the development of Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu drug, said in an interview that he intends to publish a report suggesting the new strain may have accidentally evolved in eggs scientists use to grow viruses and drugmakers use to make vaccines. Gibbs said he came to his conclusion as part of an effort to trace the virus’s origins by analyzing its genetic blueprint.

“One of the simplest explanations is that it’s a laboratory escape,” Gibbs said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “But there are lots of others.”

The World Health Organization received the study last weekend and is reviewing it, Keiji Fukuda, the agency’s assistant director-general of health security and environment, said in an interview May 11. Gibbs, who has studied germ evolution for four decades, is one of the first scientists to analyze the genetic makeup of the virus.

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